Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
